South Africa secured their spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) final after a thrilling two-wicket victory against Pakistan in Centurion.
This makes them the first team to qualify for the final, scheduled to be held at Lord’s next June.
Three teams—Australia, India, and Sri Lanka—are vying for the remaining spot. Each of these three teams will play four of the remaining six Tests in the WTC cycle.
Australia‘s 184-run triumph over India in the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) has significantly impacted the qualification scenario.
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Australia’s victory at the MCG has boosted their chances of defending their WTC title at Lord’s.
A win in the upcoming Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) Test would guarantee their qualification, regardless of the results of the two-Test series between Australia and Sri Lanka.
This is because a win at the SCG would elevate Australia’s win percentage to 57, a figure unattainable by both India and Sri Lanka.
If the SCG Test results in a draw, Australia would need at least one draw in their series against Sri Lanka to secure qualification.
This is due to the possibility of Sri Lanka winning both their matches against Australia, which would bring their win percentage to 53.85, potentially surpassing Australia.
Should India manage to win the SCG Test, Australia would need to win at least one Test against Sri Lanka to surpass India’s potential win percentage of 55.26.
India’s position has declined from the top spot after their series against Bangladesh to the third spot with a win percentage of 52.78.
This drop occurred despite India having one Test in hand.
They now trail the top two contenders, both of whom have win percentages exceeding 60.
The MCG defeat signifies the first instance in this WTC cycle where India’s qualification fate is no longer solely in their hands.
India’s best-case scenario involves winning the SCG Test to achieve a win percentage of 55.26.
They would then need Australia to not win any of their matches against Sri Lanka.
If the series against Australia ends in a 2-2 draw and both Tests between Australia and Sri Lanka are also drawn, both India and Australia will have a win percentage of 55.26.
In this scenario, India would qualify by virtue of winning more series (three compared to Australia’s two).
However, if Australia earns more than eight points in their series against Sri Lanka (two draws would give them eight points), they would finish ahead of India.
A defeat or a draw in the final Test in Australia would eliminate India from contention for a third consecutive WTC final appearance.
Sri Lanka’s chances of reaching the WTC final suffered a significant setback after their series loss to South Africa.
Any result other than a draw in the SCG Test would eliminate Sri Lanka from contention, regardless of the outcome of their series against Australia in February.
Sri Lanka’s only path to the top two involves winning both matches against Australia and the SCG Test ending in a draw.
This scenario would result in Sri Lanka finishing with a win percentage of 53.85, Australia with 53.51, and India with 51.75.
